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Hokkaido: 4,985,419 People

This poem begins with the reality of Hokkaido’s declining population and expands into a broader reflection on the challenges facing modern society.
More than a commentary on demographics, it explores the consequences of population decline: economic stagnation, energy dependence, weakening local governments, labor shortages, political disillusionment, and the erosion of human connections.
Rather than lamenting a shrinking society, the poem proposes a new vision: shukujū—a concept of living sustainably within limits while preserving human dignity and mutual support.
Ultimately, the poem argues that the future depends not on endless expansion, but on the courage to build a society where people can continue to live together with hope.


Hokkaido: 4,985,419 People) 

The preliminary results
of the 2025 national census.

Hokkaido's population
has fallen into the four-million range
for the first time since 1955.

Japan's total population stands at 123.05 million,
marking the largest decline
since the previous 2020 survey.

The era of serious population decline
has truly arrived.

Both in absolute numbers
and in rate of decrease,
Hokkaido ranks among the highest
of all prefectures.

Even Sapporo has begun to shrink,

its first population decline
since records began in 1920.

A population of 1,964,034
(approximately 910,000 men and 1.04 million women).

Nearly 990,000 households,
with an average of just 1.97 persons per household.

The number of households has increased,
yet single-person households continue to grow.

According to the city's 2022 projection,
the population in 2060
will decline to 1,589,000.

Perhaps by then,
the children of the baby-boom generation
will have passed through their old age.

The reality of a shrinking society
is becoming unmistakable.

Economic growth can now
be halted with ease.

If oil supplies are disrupted,
the social system itself may falter.

We are forced to confront
how deeply dependent we have become.

Not only summer,
but even winter heating becomes uncertain.

Should electricity or heating fuel be affected,
a state of emergency would emerge.

Death by freezing—
once a theoretical concern—
would become frighteningly real.

Across Hokkaido,
population decline continues.

The functions of local governments
are increasingly at risk.

Administrative systems may become more automated
through AI and other technologies.

Yet everywhere,
the people needed to sustain society
are in short supply.

The nation proclaims a harmonious society,
but often shifts responsibility onto others.

New restrictions and adjustments
will reshape the way we live.

Even if we question policies
or the quality of political leadership,

clear answers remain elusive.

We struggle merely to cope
with realities we never imagined.

The illusion of grand words
and confident slogans
will eventually fade.

Expectations and trust in governments, too,
may one day collapse.

Rather than mourning a shrinking society,

let us imagine
the fate of a society consumed by self-interest.

Let us imagine
the devastation of a society
that severs human connections.

Let us imagine
a nation unable to protect
life and livelihood.

To seek endless expansion
is merely an attachment to the past.

Without embracing an age of meaningful contraction,
the future will not open before us.

Meaningful contraction
is the resolve to survive together.

Meaningful contraction
is the realization of our hope
to remain truly human.

Written on May 30, 2026.
The self-preserving words of politicians may soon lose all value.

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